Every Wednesday, John Daigle of theunbiasedfan.com stops by Spin IT to provide his assessment of various happenings around the NBA.
This week, Daigle introduces you to his (mostly) fool-proof system for determining which teams will be the last 3 in and the first 3 out in the Western Conference.
For more of John Daigle, be sure to visit The Unbiased Fan.
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With only a few weeks remaining in the regular season, there
are quite a few things I can confidently claim to know: What Boston has
accomplished without their best player on the court is nothing short of
astonishing; George Hill might be having the most underrated NBA season of any
player out there; The Heat are really, really good; The Bobcats are really,
really bad; Bryan Colangelo already regrets the Rudy Gay trade; No matter their
combined age or resting situation, every team should fear running into the
Spurs during the postseason; The Grizzlies are a legitimate contender if their
seeding-chips fall in the right place; The Detroit obituaries, if even for a
second, had reserved a spot for Brandon Knight after the DeAndre dunk; Orlando
might have a sneaky-good core of role players in place between Vucevic, Harris,
Moore, and Harkless; I’m not sure what the hell the Sixers are doing; And did I
mention the Heat are really good?

However, one issue I can’t seem to put my finger on is which
teams will eventually sneak into the postseason for the West. The top five
seeds, minus the obligatory jostling that’s sure to take place over the next
few weeks, might be set in stone, but the six through eleven seeds are
separated by a mere six games. How are we supposed to deduce who’s in and who
stays home to enjoy the new season of
Game
of Thrones on the night-of?
The good news is, together, I feel like this can be
accomplished. So, without further ado, I present to you the point scale that’s
sure to help us reach a conclusion (or drive me to a Carrie Mathison-like state
at the end of Homeland Season One).
It’s rather simple. We’ll only be judging Golden State,
Houston, the Lakers, Utah, Dallas, and Portland, seeing as they’re the only
teams left competing for three spots. A team receives two points for winning
the category, one point for being an honorable mention, and half a point whenever
I deem fit. (I wouldn’t try to argue that last bullet point, either. If you
feel the need to protest any half-point increments, I’ll promptly use
the Chewbacca defense and
walk away.) In the end, we’ll tally the points we’ve divvied up to each team
and see where we stand. Fail proof,
right?
And as a friendly reminder, this is once again being brought
to you by Around The Revolutions…
Strength of
Schedule
Though this category offered numerous ways to approach it, I
felt the best method was to address the toughest paths, rather than the
easiest. For instance, the Warriors, Rockets, and Lakers have 10 games
remaining against teams over .500, while Portland, on the other hand, has 16.
The worst luck happens to lean towards the Mavericks, who
have 13 games left to play against above-.500 teams, yet only two games in
which they could make up an entire game between themselves and the sixth seed
(LAL, Portland).
However, the two most interesting outlooks to watch surrounding
these six teams are (1) How the next seven games for Utah play out (@OKC, Mem,
NYK, @Hou, @SA, @Dal, Por), and (2) How Los Angeles handles their final four
games of the season (@Por, GS, SA, Hou). (Don’t worry. If it comes down to a
win-and-in situation, you can lay the house on a Live Journal the following
morning.)
Nonetheless, the clear winner here is Golden State. With
only 10 games remaining against above-.500 teams, six of those happen to be
versus opponents they could stay an entire game up on with a victory (Hou, LAL x
2, Port x 2, Utah).
SCORE: Golden
State – 2, Houston – 1, LAL – 1, Utah – 0, Dallas – 0, Portland – 0
Offense
Is there any doubt who walks away from this one with two
points? Only one team throughout the entire league has scored more points than
the Rockets (Denver), while the Knicks, who are second in the league in 3-point-attempts,
rank nearly one hundred behind them. And even with their high-volume of shooting
from behind the arc, Houston’s accuracy hasn’t taken a hit, sinking an
incredible 37.3% of their 3’s. (For comparison, the Warriors have attempted
just below 1300 and are shooting a league-best 39.7%.)
Just to drive home the point, the Rockets are also the only
team on this list that rank in the top 10 of OffRtg (scoring 107.3 points per
100 possessions), assist percentage (60.9% of their shots come via assist), and
rebounding percentage (50.7%, which shouldn’t come as too much of a shock
seeing as Morey and McHale preach the Moneyball-method of volume-shooting and
rebounding). (Though their second-worst opponent offensive rebounding
percentage might need some work.)
SCORE: Houston
– 2, GS – 1, LAL – 0, Utah – 0, Dallas – 0, Portland – 0
Best
Pending Reality Show
An incredibly strong category considering these are teams
fighting to live another day. I’m not sure what Utah, Portland, or Golden State
bring to the table in terms of entertainment, but Karoake with Delfino!, The Roast of Dwight Howard, and my personal
favorite, Vinsanity’s School of Cycling undoubtedly
have wheels.
SCORE:
Dallas – 2, LAL – 1, Houston – 1,
Utah – 0, Portland – 0, GS – 0
Defense
In a not-so-coincidental
coincidence, none of these teams are currently listed in the top 10 of
defensive efficiency. In fact, none are ranked in the top 15. Actually, let’s
take this a step further. Here’s a list of how many points per 100 possessions
each team is currently allowing, with their league ranking in parentheses.
Golden State – 103.4 (17)
Los Angeles – 103.9 (18)
Utah – 104.1 (19)
Dallas – 104.2 (20)
Houston – 104.9 (24)
Portland – 105.3 (25)
Thanks for doing
all the work for me, guys.
SCORE: Every
team -1
Future
There’s
certainly a clear-cut winner here, however, almost every team deserves some
sort of applause. The Trail Blazers began their transition during the most
recent offseason, while the Warriors are currently competing with a team of
surging youths that are destined to be an eventual contender with one or two
more miniscule additions.
Furthermore,
the Mavericks reasoning behind the release of Chandler revolves solely around
the CBA and what lies in the future, the Lakers only have one player on the
books during the Summer of Lebron (literally),
and the Jazz hold all the cards with two exponential sign-and-trade pieces in
Millsap and Jefferson. It’s just too bad each of these teams have to compete
with the Rockets analytics.
I’ve written it time and time again, so I’ll save further barraging
for another date. Just don’t be shocked when the Rockets “fill-in” players
around a couple of maxed out superstars are (instead of casual names like
Carter, Meeks, and Hayward) Lin and Asik.
SCORE: Houston
– 2, Dallas – 1, Utah – 1, GS – 1, LAL - 1, Portland – .5
Momentum
Sure, no one in the league might be trekking towards the
playoffs like the Nuggets (nine in a
row/19-4 over their last 23, which is about an 11 on the Holy Shit Meter), but
there are still a few outliers in this group that are just now reaching their
peak.
Though they’re slowly attempting to right the ship, Golden
State has been the complete opposite of this category as of late, going 6-12
over their last 18 games. On the same note, Utah is getting shelled in the
second half of games, specifically in the third quarter, where they’ve allowed
111.8 points per 100 possessions while only scoring 92.8 over the course of
their last seven games (2-6). (It should also be noted that even in those two
wins, they scored 109.3 and allowed 136.5 in the third.)
On the opposite end of the spectrum, the Rockets are finding
a groove, and Dallas is hitting their stride at the right time, winning five of
their last six. The big winner here, though, remains the Lakers.
Rising from the depths of 17-25, Los Angeles has somehow
collected themselves over time, now sitting three games above .500. Howard’s
momentous 39 and 16 in Orlando may or may not have been an important niche and
turning point of this season (let alone his career), but either way, the Lakers
are building chemistry en route to a likely postseason berth.
SCORE: LAL –
2, Houston – 1, Dallas – 1, GS – 0, Utah – 0, Portland – 0
Clutch
Ladies and Gentlemen,
welcome back to America’s favorite game show: GUESS! THAT! NAME!!
You already know how
to play, so let’s jump straight into it. Ready? Ok, go ahead and…GUESS! THAT!
NAME!!!
Your category is: THE FINAL FIVE MINUTES…
Kyrie Irving – 43-90 FG, 47.8 FG%, 9-28 3FG, 32.1 3FG%
(Player A) – 17-34 FG, 50 FG%, 14-25 3FG, 56 3FG%
Answers locked? Well,
if you guessed Wesley Matthews…YOU’RE CORRECT! Thanks for playing, and as
always, please have your pets spayed or neutered.
Of the 38 players that qualified with 100+ minutes logged
during the final five minutes of games (when CLUTCH statistics are tracked),
Matthews has the highest shooting percentage from beyond the arc (per
NBA
Stats Database) and has been a constant go-to, along with Lillard.
I realize you want the ball in Kobe’s hand during those
must-have moments, especially since he’s still playing out-of-this-world great.
Or maybe you’ll even suffice with Harden/Virk Carwitzki. But come on, Portland
is still in the negatives! Plus, we somehow have to make up for LaRue Martin,
Mychal Thompson, Greg Oden, and Arvydas Sabonis (every Trail Blazers fan just
smashed their computer).
SCORE: Portland – 2, LAL – 1.5, Dallas – 1, Houston
– 1, Utah – 0, GS - 0
So, if you’ve been keeping track, the totals are as follows
(drum roll, please)…
Houston – 7
Los Angeles –
5.5
Dallas – 4
Golden State –
3
Portland – 1.5
Utah – 0
And there you have it. I’m not saying it’s a fool-proof plan for figuring the West out, but it’s the best method we have,
RIGHT?